Five future challenges for the coffee industry

As we look to the rest of 2025 and beyond, many uncertain factors challenge the coffee industry.

Climate change threatens the stability of the supply chain and quality of the product. Labour shortages threaten to leave swathes of crop unharvested. And global logistics and trade policies create further instability.

Understanding these challenges is essential for businesses and consumers who want to support a resilient, sustainable coffee future.

1. Climate

Coffee plants are extremely sensitive to their environment. Take the Arabica variety, which makes up around 60% of global production, and all of specialty coffee. This plant requires specific growing conditions, in narrow temperature, rainfall and altitude ranges.

But as weather patterns shift, yields are becoming more unpredictable.

In some areas, especially in Central and South America, traditional farming regions are facing longer droughts. They also experience more intense storms and temperature changes that stress crops and spread disease. Already, we’re seeing rising cases of coffee leaf rust in Central America. Coffee leaf rust is highly infectious and decimates crops that are infected.

In East Africa, growers are struggling to adapt to irregular rainy seasons and lower harvest volumes.

And in Brazil – the world’s largest coffee producer – droughts followed by frost wiped out entire sections of crop in 2024.

As viable farmland shrinks, new growing areas are being pushed to higher altitudes. Often onto land that’s limited, fragile, or currently forested.

Coffee is no longer just about flavour. Climate pressure is affecting consistency, quality and yield. Some producers are adapting with drought-resistant crops, agroforestry and smarter farming practices, but change takes time and investment.

Resilience is now as important as taste. For consumers, supporting climate adaptation at origin helps secure the future of coffee.

2. Labour shortages

Coffee cherries are mostly harvested by hand. This reliance on manual labour leaves the coffee industry vulnerable to worker shortages. Migration policies, unpredictable harvest patterns and limited career prospects are making it harder to find and keep skilled workers.

In the past year alone, several coffee-growing countries have reported significant drops in output due to labour shortages. The effects are already being felt in both yield and quality.

Countries such as Costa Rica and Honduras report reduced harvest yields due to a lack of workers.

New Nicaraguan laws are preventing workers leaving the country temporarily for work. So many neighbouring countries lost a huge proportion of their seasonal workers.

Typically, 40% of the 70,000 harvest workers come from Nicaragua during peak season. So in some places up to 15% of the coffee crop was left unpicked.

Young people in major coffee-producing regions increasingly avoid farm work. In Ecuador’s Intag Valley, only about 10% of the region’s original farms remain, with young workers drawn to urban jobs or mining, leaving farming with an aging cohort.

Some farms are experimenting with mechanisation and improved labour conditions. For example, offering dormitories, buses and higher wages. But steep terrain and costs limit their reach.

Finding and retaining skilled labour is becoming more challenging, which affects harvests and quality. At the same time, the overall cost of coffee production is increasing, adding further pressure to the supply chain.

3. Rising production costs

Alongside labour challenges, coffee producers face steadily increasing costs at every stage of production.

Most coffee-producing countries operate in local currencies that have weakened against the US dollar in recent years. For example, the Brazilian real and Colombian peso have both depreciated by around 10–15% against the dollar since 2023.

Energy costs add another layer of pressure. Fuel is essential not only for operating machinery but also for transporting coffee cherries from remote farms to processing plants.

The price of diesel and electricity in key producing countries has risen by an estimated 12–18% over the past 18 months due to global inflation and supply chain disruptions.

The rising costs of production are likely to be impacting the price of coffee worldwide.

4. Logistics, freight and global trade

Once coffee is harvested, it still has to reach the market. That journey is getting harder.

Freight costs remain high, with fuel costs and global conflicts driving costs up and slowing down transport.

In early 2024, freight rates from Europe to Latin America rose by around 30–50%. Hapag‑Lloyd added €350–500 per shipping container, while Maersk reported a 38% jump in costs due to rerouting to avoid warzones.

Some exporters are adapting. They’re consolidating shipments or using different freight partners. But global infrastructure remains stretched, and options are limited.

Logistics are now a major factor in supply and pricing. Getting coffee from farm to roastery takes more time, more planning and more money than before.

5. Tariffs and trade uncertainty

The global coffee trade depends on smooth international cooperation. But when trade policy shifts, the effects ripple across the entire supply chain.

The United States is the second-largest coffee importer in the world, after the EU. Changes to its trade policy can reshape global pricing, disrupt supply routes, and shift demand.

Tariffs and retaliatory measures are still on the table, with potential trade sanctions for Brazil due to its allegiance to Russia and China under BRICS. If implemented, they could distort coffee flows, alter futures pricing, and change how producers prioritise export markets.

Even the threat of tariffs can influence investor sentiment and exchange rates, both of which affect the global coffee price.

For producers and buyers alike, unpredictable trade policy creates risk. It makes long-term planning harder and adds pressure to an already volatile supply chain.

Conclusion

In summary, the future challenges faced by the coffee industry are numerous and interconnected. Climate change is reshaping where and how coffee grows. Labour shortages and rising production costs are making it harder for coffee growers to turn a profit. Global logistics and trade uncertainties further complicate supply chains.

The choices that consumers make about their suppliers can support resilience and sustainability at origin.

Partnering with coffee suppliers who invest in climate adaptation, fair labour practices, and transparent sourcing helps protect your coffee supply and the people behind it.